Analyst Battleground: Can Nio Finally Break Even in Q4?

The race to profitability for Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio (NYSE: NIO) has hit a contentious new chapter. Following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings this week, a sharp divide has emerged between Nio’s management and market analysts regarding the company's immediate future.

While management remains confident about hitting a historic breakeven point by the end of this year, a new report suggests that celebration might be premature.

The Analyst Skepticism

A team of analysts at CMB International has issued a report challenging Nio’s optimistic outlook. Despite management reiterating confidence in achieving their first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, CMB International believes the numbers won't quite add up.

The Bearish Case:

• Projected Loss: The analysts expect Nio to report a net loss of RMB 1.6 billion ($226 million) in Q4, with a non-GAAP adjusted net loss of RMB 700 million.

• The Hurdle: The primary skepticism stems from operating expenses. The analyst team argues that selling and administrative expenses (SG&A) will be difficult to contain at Q3 levels, potentially eroding the margins necessary to cross the breakeven threshold.

• Price Target: Consequently, CMB International maintained a "Hold" rating and lowered their price target from $7.00 to $6.40.

  
  

The Counterpoint: Nio’s Strong Q3 Momentum

To understand the Q4 debate, we have to look at the "solid" foundation laid in the third quarter. Nio’s Q3 2025 results, released on November 25, showed a company moving aggressively in the right direction.

Key Q3 2025 Financial Highlights:

• Narrowing Losses: Net loss was RMB 3.48 billion, a significant 31.2% improvement year-over-year.

• Revenue Growth: Total revenue hit RMB 21.79 billion ($3.06 billion), up 16.7% from last year.

• Margin Recovery: Vehicle margins climbed to 14.7% (up from 13.1% in Q3 2024), driven by lower material costs and a better product mix.

• Record Deliveries: The company delivered 87,071 vehicles in Q3, a 40.8% jump year-over-year.

Looking Ahead: The Q4 Roadmap

Despite the skepticism from CMB International, the company is guiding for a massive fourth quarter.

• Delivery Guidance: Nio expects to deliver between 120,000 and 125,000 units in Q4.

• October Momentum: They are already on track, having delivered a record 40,397 vehicles in October alone.

• New Models: The sales surge is being fueled by the new Onvo L60 (a mass-market competitor to Tesla's Model Y) and the flagship Nio ET9.

  
  

What This Means for Investors

The divergence between analyst estimates and management guidance creates high stakes for the next earnings call. If Nio achieves breakeven in Q4, it will validate their strategy of heavy R&D and infrastructure investment. If they miss, as CMB predicts, it may reinforce fears that the "price war" in China's EV sector is making sustained profitability elusive.

Other major banks remain split as well:

• Morgan Stanley reiterated an "Overweight" rating with a $9.00 target, focusing on 2026 expansion plans.

• Macquarie downgraded the stock to "Neutral," citing potential demand weakness for the Onvo brand.

• Citi lowered the firm's price target on Nio to $6.90 from $8.60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's "weak" volume outlook for Q4 on slowing down orders, low visibility of sales into Q1, and more intense competition for the target cut.

See all analyst ratings here

The Bottom Line: Nio is delivering cars at record speeds and cutting losses, but the final leap to profitability remains the hardest step. Q4 results will be the ultimate proving ground.