Bullish vs. Coinbase: Valuation, Volumes, and the Next Big Crypto Exchange Bet

Coinbase, the largest publicly traded U.S. crypto exchange, now has fresh competition making headlines. Bullish, the fast-growing trading platform backed by major Wall Street and crypto heavyweights, made its public market debut today—and stunned investors with an 83.78% first-day pop. The surge underscores Wall Street’s growing appetite for crypto infrastructure plays as Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volumes swell. While Coinbase leans on brand recognition and regulatory experience, Bullish is charging ahead with deep liquidity pools and aggressive expansion plans. With both exchanges now in the spotlight, the battle for market share is about to get far more intense—and potentially far more lucrative for investors.

Lets compare ....

1) Competitor snapshot

Exchange/platform	Core mix	Notable scale/notes
Bullish	Spot + perps; data/media	$250B 2024 vol; CoinDesk+CCData; Q2-25 NI guide $106–109M.
Coinbase	Spot + derivatives + custody + USDC yield	Q2-25 $1.50B revenue; trading volume $237B; Adj. EBITDA $512M.
Robinhood (crypto)	Brokerage; crypto is a slice	Public but not pure-play exchange; crypto volume/rev cyclic; (context only).
Privates (benchmarks)	Binance, OKX, Kraken, Crypto.com	Market structure/market-share context; Kaiko ranks/market-share shifts (Binance still #1).

Market-share color: Kaiko notes shifting exchange shares in 2024–25; Coinbase remains dominant in the U.S., while emerging venues (incl. Bullish) gained share in BTC pairs.

2) Valuation: where BLSH could screen vs. COIN

Market references (Aug 13, 2025):

• COIN price ~$326 (see live widget above). Fully diluted shares from Q2-25 letter ~289M → implied ~$94B mkt cap (rough).

• BLSH IPO valuation ~$5.4B at $37; if it opens ~$60–$65, that implies ~$8.7–$9.4B.

Simple multiples (directional, not EV-clean):

Metric (TTM/Run-rate)	Bullish (IPO px $37)	Bullish ( Est: $69)	Coinbase (COIN)
Market Cap	~$5.4B	~$12b	~high-$90Bs
Net income	Mgmt Q2-25 guide $106–109M; if annualized bluntly → ~$425M run-rate (caveat: cyclic, not normalized)	same	Q2-25 Adj. Net Inc $33M; GAAP NI boosted by investment gains ($1.4B GAAP). (CoinDesk, Q4 Capital)
P/E (run-rate-ish)	~12–13x (at $37)	~23x(at $69)	GAAP P/E noisy; on adjusted basis COIN looks richer on revenue/EV metrics; see below.
Revenue	2024 Adj. transaction rev $153M; 2025 mix adds media/data	—	Q2-25 revenue $1.50B (down 26% q/q). (Morningstar, Q4 Capital)
Price/Sales (blunt)	If we assume 2025E rev in low-$400Ms (media+trading; speculative) → ~13x at $5.4B (illustrative)	~22x	COIN 2025E street ranges widely; spot P/S on TTM roughly ~12–15x depending on adjustments (context only).

Key caveats:

• Bullish’s Q2 guide may include one-offs/cycle effects; annualizing a single quarter in crypto is risky.

• EV and clean P/E need debt, cash, and segment detail from filings; COIN’s GAAP is distorted by investment remeasurement gains (Q2). Use adjusted metrics for apples-to-apples.

3) Operating economics & take-rates (intuition)

• COIN blended take-rate skews higher due to retail mix; Q2-25 total trading $237B produced $764M transaction revenue → implied blended bp in the low-to-mid tens (but mix-shift and pricing changes complicate).

• BLSH is institution-heavy; expect low single-digit bps take-rates on large cap pairs; upside from perps funding/fees + data/media ARPU. (Inference based on institutional focus and industry norms; validate with final prospectus once available.)

4) Volume-driven revenue scenarios for Bullish

Assumptions:

• Blended take-rate on trading: 1.5 bps (bear) / 2.5 bps (base) / 3.5 bps (bull).

• Perps share of volume grows; assume similar effective economics to spot+perps blended above.

• Data & media (CoinDesk/CCData) 2026E: $120M (bear) / $160M (base) / $210M (bull) (growing from 2024 baseline; press hints strong expansion).

• Cost discipline yields 30–35% adj. EBITDA margin at scale (near peers range widely; Coinbase printed $512Madj. EBITDA on $1.5B revenue in Q2).

  
  

Scenario table (illustrative):

2026E	Total Trading Volume	Blended bps	Trading Rev	Data/Media Rev	Total Rev	Adj. EBITDA (mid-pt 32%)
Bear	$600B	1.5	$90M	$120M	$210M	$67M
Base	$1.0T	2.5	$250M	$160M	$410M	$131M
Bull	$1.6T	3.5	$560M	$210M	$770M	$246M

How to use this:

• At the IPO valuation (~$5.4B), the Base scenario implies ~13x Sales and ~41x Adj. EBITDA; at a $9B post-pop value, those stretch to ~22x and ~69x.

• If Bullish sustains quarterly $100M+ GAAP earnings (a big “if”), P/E compresses fast. But that depends on cycle, market share stickiness, and derivatives penetration.

5) COIN vs. BLSH — where each wins

• Regulatory moat (COIN). U.S. licensing, custody depth, and USDC economics create non-trading revenue that smooths cycles. Q2-25 subscriptions/services $656M (-6% q/q) helped offset a 39% q/q drop in transaction revenue.

• Fee/mix advantage (BLSH). If Bullish keeps scaling institutional BTC/ETH + perps while layering higher-margin data, its revenue beta to volumes may be lower than a retail-heavy venue — but absolute growth will still track the crypto cycle.

• Brand & distribution. CoinDesk + CCData give BLSH owned distribution into institutions & media, potentially lowering CAC and boosting data ARPU over time.

6) Risks to the BLSH thesis

• Cycle risk. If BTC/ETH volatility fades, volumes retrench (COIN’s own Q2 shows how volumes can fall ~40%q/q).

• Take-rate pressure. Institutional flow is price-sensitive; competition (Binance/OKX/Kraken/Crypto.com) and maker-taker wars can compress margins.

• Regulatory drift. U.S./EU rule changes (even with recent tailwinds) could alter derivatives economics or capital requirements. (General sector risk.)

• Execution on perps. Winning sustained open interest is hard; incentives can be costly if not recouped in volumes.

7) Bottom line — is BLSH a “good” investment?

• Near term: The IPO pricing was attractive versus COIN’s multiple stack, which is why indications are surging. But at $60+, BLSH screens closer to COIN on P/S without COIN’s diversified S&S base — making entry pricecritical.

• Medium term: If Bullish delivers (a) consistent $100M+/qtr profitability through a full mini-cycle, (b) perpsscaling, and (c) data/media growth, the Base scenario supports today’s IPO valuation; the Bull case supports a re-rating.

• Compare to COIN: Coinbase remains the quality compounder with broader revenue levers (custody, USDC, staking, interest). You’re paying a premium for that resiliency — but historically it has earned it.

  
  

My take (non-advice): BLSH is interesting as a higher-beta, smaller-cap exchange + data play. It can complement COIN, not replace it. For fundamental investors, anchoring on position sizing and valuation discipline (e.g., waiting for post-IPO volatility to subside) makes sense.