Forget SpaceX: Why Rocket Lab (RKLB) Might Be the Better Bet for 2030

Rocket Lab is an "end-to-end" space company, meaning they don't just launch rockets; they also build the satellites that go on them and the components that make those satellites work.

The front of a Rocket Lab corporate office by Emagnetic

Think of them as a "fedex trucking company" for space (launching packages) that also owns a factory building the "packages" (satellites) themselves.

Here is the breakdown of their business model:

1. Launch Services (Getting to Space)

This is what they are most famous for. They are currently the second most frequent launcher of rockets in the U.S., behind only SpaceX.

• Electron: This is their current workhorse rocket. It is a "small lift" vehicle designed to carry small satellites (about the size of a refrigerator or washing machine) into orbit. It is unique because it uses 3D-printed engines and electric pumps.

  
  

• Neutron (In Development): This is their upcoming medium-lift rocket, designed to compete more directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9. It is bigger, reusable, and capable of launching "mega-constellations" (thousands of satellites for internet, etc.) and potentially humans.

SpaceX Falcon 9

• HASTE: A modified version of Electron used for hypersonic testing (flying extremely fast within the atmosphere) for defense purposes.

  
  

2. Space Systems (Working in Space)

This is a massive, often overlooked part of their business. They design and manufacture the actual satellites and the critical parts that go inside them.

• Satellite Manufacturing: They build their own satellite "buses" (the chassis/body of the satellite), such as the Photon spacecraft. NASA used a Rocket Lab Photon to send the CAPSTONE mission to the Moon.

  
  

• Components: They sell critical parts to other satellite companies. If you are building

  a satellite, you can buy Rocket Lab solar panels, "reaction wheels" (which spin to keep the satellite stable), radios, and separation systems.

  
  

This fits the profile of a "high-growth/high-investment" stock. They are aggressively spending money to build bigger rockets (Neutron), but their core business is growing revenue very fast.

Neutron is a partially reusable, medium-lift, two-stage launch vehicle under development

RKLB Financial Snapshot (As of Dec 2025)

Recent Highlights (Q3 2025)

• Approaching Profitability: They are still losing money (-$18M this quarter) because they are reinvesting heavily, but this loss is narrowing significantly. Their profit margins on launches are hitting records (~37%).

• Neutron Rocket: This is the big catalyst. They are on track for a 2026 launch. This rocket will compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9.

• Toronto Win: As mentioned, they just won a contract from the Canadian Space Agency to build satellite components at their Toronto facility.

This is the most helpful way to contextualize Rocket Lab’s (RKLB) high valuation. It shows that while RKLB is "expensive" compared to a traditional company, it is actually trading in the same league as other hyper-growth AI and Tech darlings.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Comparison (Dec 2025)

The "Takeaway"

"Rocket Lab trades at 49x sales, which sounds incredibly high compared to a standard defense company like Lockheed Martin (1.5x). However, when you compare it to other 'cult' growth stocks like Palantir (102x), Rocket Lab's valuation looks more reasonable. Investors aren't paying for what Rocket Lab is doing today; they are paying for what it might become in 2030."

Is it a buy ?

The Bull Case: You are buying the "Number 2" player in a market that might be worth trillions. If the Neutron rocket works in 2026, their revenue potential creates a massive step-change.

The Bear Case: Space is hard. If the Neutron rocket fails or is delayed significantly, the stock could drop fast because a lot of that future success is already "priced in" at $50/share.